S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Apr 18, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Apr 11, 2016

Initial weaknesses did not produce much damage and the slingshot move higher materialized. The breadth analog model did a great job for the week.

Forecast Starting Apr 18, 2016

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Apr 15, 2016:

Custom breadth divergence finally in place pointing to potential swing top in the making
A drop of 1.5% will likely lead to 2.5% drop
Extreme intraday volatility in both direction expected
Multiple intraday turning points expected with wild swings that has to be identified with real-time breadth

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Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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