S&P 500 Aug 05 to Aug 09 Outlook

Recap
Mentioned last week ES would be influenced by NQ and it happened. ES was weak and failed to hold Y-0 yet strength in NQ carried ES higher and forced an upside breakout in ES eventually. Short squeeze, however, did not carry ES much higher. Not even Y+2 was tagged. Closed the week at week high and above Y+1.

Outlook
Signs of distribution in the underlying components detected in real-time. Distribution phase takes time and they usually happens while the market is going higher, not lower.

Chart pattern suggests consolidation around Y+2 / B+1 area this week. Retest of Y+1 is possible if a strong reversal setup against B+1 happens later in the week.