Recap Bullish target above Y+1 tagged in the beginning of the week as expected. Then the surprise part was a quick run down breaking Y-1 in one go. That puts Y-2 and Y-3 in play. Got both after retest of Y-1. Closed the week bouncing off Y-3.
Outlook The upside breakout last week turned into a breakout failure, that puts the other extreme in play as shown in STOPD. The odds of a bounce to Y-1 or dropping further to Y-5 is 50/50. However one of them being tagged next week has 90% odds.
Here is the trading system I presented in the Futures Magazine article, Using market breadth in trading systems, in the January 2008 issue.
System Setup
1. Emini S&P regular trading hours (RTH) ...
Dow 30 Jun 06 to Jun 10 Outlook
Lawrence’s Comment
Bullish target above Y+1 tagged in the beginning of the week as expected. Then the surprise part was a quick run down breaking Y-1 in one go. That puts Y-2 and Y-3 in play. Got both after retest of Y-1. Closed the week bouncing off Y-3.
Outlook
The upside breakout last week turned into a breakout failure, that puts the other extreme in play as shown in STOPD.
The odds of a bounce to Y-1 or dropping further to Y-5 is 50/50. However one of them being tagged next week has 90% odds.
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