S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015

Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast

Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.

Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:

1. Mild bullish bias pointing to up drift of 1% or more in coming 5 trading days.
2. Critical decision to be made in the week after should down trend on daily wants to continue.
3. A move beyond 2% from previous week close is unlikely.

Report Snapshot

Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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