Recap As explained last week that option expiration weeks operate with a different set of rules. Dow could not clear the upper boundary as expected and suddenly dropped back down to Y-0 and below to end the week as expected. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Outlook Dow has not broken the weekly up trend, yet. That means if Dow can hold B-1, it will get a chance to move back up to B-0 to challenge the open gap above. Until daily level down trend is established, it is difficult to tell how much more downside can happen.
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
ES followed the other 2 indices making a major reversal. Custom breadth models correctly identified the expected weaknesses. Closed the week below Y-1 and near week low.
Outlook
Y-1 ...
Dow 30 Apr 20 to Apr 24 Outlook
Lawrence’s Comment
As explained last week that option expiration weeks operate with a different set of rules. Dow could not clear the upper boundary as expected and suddenly dropped back down to Y-0 and below to end the week as expected. Closed the week below Y-0 and midpoint.
Outlook
Dow has not broken the weekly up trend, yet. That means if Dow can hold B-1, it will get a chance to move back up to B-0 to challenge the open gap above.
Until daily level down trend is established, it is difficult to tell how much more downside can happen.
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