S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jul 6, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Jun 29, 2015
Gap lower on Greece situation. That ruled out the potential for a 1% bounce at the start of the week and led to continuous selling the rest of the week even though S&P gapped higher every trading day. The breadth analog model did a great job last week.
Forecast Starting Jul 6, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 2, 2015:
Another Greece moment this weekend, reaction to surprise development can lead to volatility in both directions not predictable by the model
Down trend in force
Risk of a significant top in place with 10% or more decline
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Option expiration week Tuesday is different from regular Tuesday. Regular Tuesday does not produce noticeable bias throughout the history of Emini S&P. Option expiration Tuesdays, however, has very strong statistical ...
Option expiration week Tuesday is different from regular Tuesday. Regular Tuesday does not produce noticeable bias throughout the history of Emini S&P. Option expiration Tuesdays, however, has very strong statistical ...READ MORE
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jul 6, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jun 29, 2015
Gap lower on Greece situation. That ruled out the potential for a 1% bounce at the start of the week and led to continuous selling the rest of the week even though S&P gapped higher every trading day. The breadth analog model did a great job last week.
Forecast Starting Jul 6, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 2, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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