S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Nov 2, 2015

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Oct 26, 2015

Sudden sharp pullback of 2% or more did not materialize as 1% drop capped the down side. Forecast of volatility spike swinged the market both ways mid-week. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.

Forecast Starting Nov 2, 2015

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Oct 30, 2015:

Significant pullback of 5% or more in the making
Volatility is expected to increase sharply coming 2 to 3 weeks
Weak closing for this week will open door to more downside next week

Report Snapshot

Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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