S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Nov 9, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Nov 2, 2015
Quiet NFP week with intraday volatility picking up as expected. The development of a swing top that is necessary for the potential 5% pullback was still in progress. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Nov 9, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Nov 6, 2015:
Significant pullback of 5% or more in the making
Volatility is expected to continue to increase
Weak closing from last week set the stage for a sharp pullback starting this week may last 2 to 3 weeks
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Nov 9, 2015
Review of Forecast for Nov 2, 2015
Quiet NFP week with intraday volatility picking up as expected. The development of a swing top that is necessary for the potential 5% pullback was still in progress. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Nov 9, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Nov 6, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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