S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Dec 21, 2015

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Dec 14, 2015

Bottoming call worked out. Got the 2.5% and more rally as well. Premium members learned that a complete reversal was expected starting Thursday as custom breadth readings signalled the reversal after Wed close. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.

Forecast Starting Dec 21, 2015

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Dec 18, 2015:

Trend sell into long weekend likely
Once 1.5% drop is in place continuation down to 2.5% is likely

Report Snapshot

Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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