S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Jul 11, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Jul 4, 2016

Sharp pullback at the beginning of the week as forecasted. Since then rally all the way up and capped below the 1.5% upside as projected as well. The breadth analog model did another perfect job two weeks in a row.

Forecast Starting Jul 11, 2016

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 8, 2016:

Intraday volatility spikes expected
Limited up side with 1.5% cap
1% down move will likely give us 2% down
Breadth divergence sell signal in the making with 5-day new high but not confirmed yet, need intraday confirmation

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Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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