Market Commentaries

Review of Forecast for Mar 28, 2016

Note: No forecast done for the week of Apr 4th due to busy schedule.
No pullback at all, rally of 1.5% in place and led to further push higher to close at high of week. Extreme intraday volatility in both directions as forecasted. The breadth analog model did a good job for the week.

Forecast Starting Apr 11, 2016

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Apr 8, 2016:

• Custom breadth rolling over pointing to daily level weaknesses
• Potential slingshot move in the making with swing lower first more likely followed by an explosive up swing right after
• Extreme intraday volatility in both direction expected
• Multiple intraday turning points expected with wild swings that has to be identified with real-time breadth

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Report Snapshot

Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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Overview

Emini overnight range 2030.25 up to 2053.00 (at 9:05 am)

Overnight Midpoint 2041.50

Previous Week Mid 2043.00

Emini S&P is now trading at the top part of its range with a gap up.

 

Battleplan for the Day

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Overview

Emini overnight range 2047.25 up to 2062.00 (at 8:45 am)

Overnight Midpoint 2054.50

Previous Day Mid 2047.75

Emini S&P is now trading at the bottom part of its range with a gap down.

 

Battleplan for the Day

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