Market Commentaries

Overview

Emini overnight range 1984.50 up to 1998.50 (at 9:05 am)

Overnight Midpoint 1991.50

Previous Day Mid 1995.75

Emini S&P is now trading at the bottom part of its range with a gap down.

 

Battleplan for the Day

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Review of Forecast for Feb 29, 2016

Volatile breakout play materialized. Real-time breadth turned bullish since early in the week the swing low was formed. Extreme volatility as forecasted. Swing top not produced as strong trend did not produce exhaustion in breadth during the week. The breadth analog model did a good job for the week.

Forecast Starting Mar 7, 2016

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Mar 4, 2016:

• Custom breadth exhaustion in place, daily up trend will likely end abruptly, or at least going to sideway until the over extended condition is resolved
• Once 1.5% drop is in place it is likely it will extend to 2.5% and more
• Extreme volatility continues
• Multiple intraday turning points expected with wild swings that has to be identified with real-time breadth

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Report Snapshot

Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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Overview

Emini overnight range 1987.00 up to 2002.25 (at 8:50 am)

Overnight Midpoint 1994.50

Previous Day Close 1991.50

Emini S&P is now trading at the top part of its range with a gap up.

 

Battleplan for the Day

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