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SPY at Year End Crossroad Dec 15, 2015
2015 Dec 15 Tue 20:07:51 | by
End-of-day update: SPY bounced quickly off the 200 round number level, back up to where the sudden decline started. Now facing FOMC decision tomorrow, it has to choose between a drop to 196 open gap below off the steep down channel, or, given enough firepower by the Fed, back up to 210 where the top of the daily bull flag is.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Dec 14, 2015
2015 Dec 12 Sat 14:59:53 | by
Review of Forecast for Dec 7, 2015
Bearish expectation worked out. The expansion to 2.5% or more downside also worked out. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.
Forecast Starting Dec 14, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Dec 11, 2015:
- Bottoming process potential
- Once 1.5% rally is in place continuation up to 2.5% is likely
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
To access the market breadth analog forecast report daily, sign up as our paid member now
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Dec 7, 2015
2015 Dec 5 Sat 11:49:22 | by
Review of Forecast for Nov 23, 2015
(Note: No forecast posted for the week of Nov 30)
Consolidation pullback mode expectation worked out perfectly. Intraday volatility died down as forecasted. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.
Forecast Starting Dec 7, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Dec 4, 2015:
- Sideway consolidation mode this week with slightly bearish bias
- Volatility is expected to stay low
- Once 1.5% drop is in place continuation down to 2.5% is likely
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
To access the market breadth analog forecast report daily, sign up as our paid member now
2015 Nov 22
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Nov 23, 2015
Review of Forecast for Nov 16, 2015 Pullback to 5% target and took off from there. Intraday volatility picking up as forecasted. No downward push at all. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week. Forecast Starting Nov 23, 2015 ...
Review of Forecast for Nov 16, 2015 Pullback to 5% target and took off from there. Intraday volatility picking up as forecasted. No downward push at all. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week. Forecast Starting Nov 23, 2015 ...
2015 Nov 17
Emini S&P Roadmap Nov 17, 2015
What I posted before open today in my real-time commentary service: What happened today: ...
What I posted before open today in my real-time commentary service: What happened today: ...
2015 Nov 14
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Nov 16, 2015
Review of Forecast for Nov 9, 2015 Sharp pullback with intraday volatility picking up as forecasted. The projected 5% pullback still in progress. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week. Forecast Starting Nov 16, 2015 Summary ...
Review of Forecast for Nov 9, 2015 Sharp pullback with intraday volatility picking up as forecasted. The projected 5% pullback still in progress. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week. Forecast Starting Nov 16, 2015 Summary ...
2015 Nov 13
Proud of My Model Calling the Pullback Nov 13, 2015
What I posted last weekend based on my proprietary custom breadth analog model: The full post can be found here. Well, what happened this week with Emini S&P500: ...
What I posted last weekend based on my proprietary custom breadth analog model: The full post can be found here. Well, what happened this week with Emini S&P500: ...
2015 Nov 7
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Nov 9, 2015
Review of Forecast for Nov 2, 2015 Quiet NFP week with intraday volatility picking up as expected. The development of a swing top that is necessary for the potential 5% pullback was still in progress. The breadth analog model did a fair job last w ...
Review of Forecast for Nov 2, 2015 Quiet NFP week with intraday volatility picking up as expected. The development of a swing top that is necessary for the potential 5% pullback was still in progress. The breadth analog model did a fair job last w ...
2015 Oct 31
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Nov 2, 2015
Review of Forecast for Oct 26, 2015 Sudden sharp pullback of 2% or more did not materialize as 1% drop capped the down side. Forecast of volatility spike swinged the market both ways mid-week. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week. ...
Review of Forecast for Oct 26, 2015 Sudden sharp pullback of 2% or more did not materialize as 1% drop capped the down side. Forecast of volatility spike swinged the market both ways mid-week. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week. ...
2015 Oct 24
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Oct 26, 2015
Review of Forecast for Oct 19, 2015 Pullback of 1% capped the drop so the 2% and more decline did not materialize. Volatility spike as forecasted. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week. Forecast Starting Oct 26, 2015 Summary of t ...
Review of Forecast for Oct 19, 2015 Pullback of 1% capped the drop so the 2% and more decline did not materialize. Volatility spike as forecasted. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week. Forecast Starting Oct 26, 2015 Summary of t ...
