Market Commentaries
Comments on current market related events, gossips and news.
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Emini S&P Bullish Intentions Sep 1, 2015
2015 Sep 1 Tue 14:27:38 | by
2 Hours Before Close Update: If previous week midpoint (yellow zone) is defended, 3 pushes up intention points to 2030. Whether the bulls can force this to happen is a different story though.
For the record: AL is afterhour low at 1914. Emini S&P was trading above 1930 at the time I commented.
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S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Aug 31, 2015
2015 Aug 30 Sun 11:12:33 | by
Review of Forecast for Aug 24, 2015
Extreme intraday swings expectations played out. The extreme gap down led to violent bounce back up to fill the gap was unexpected. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Aug 31, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Aug 28, 2015:
- 1% to 1.5% upside cap for the coming week
- Risk of 2% or more decline going into end of the week and 2nd week
- Volatility pattern suggests more intraday extreme swings in the making
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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Emini Nasdaq Bounces From 3 Pushes Up Target Aug 26, 2015
2015 Aug 26 Wed 18:18:29 | by
End-of-day Update: As mentioned last week, Emini Nasdaq is heading lower. And you probably wonder why it stopped at where it did and reversed course when everyone screaming danger ahead. Here is the chart that I marked the 3 pushes up formation and target since way back when.
Target tagged (bottom of the red up trend line on the left side of the chart) on Monday and now we are going through the reactionary bounce.
Do not know what 3 pushes up is? Read about it here.
As usual my premium members are told in real-time that last 2 hours today will be bullish for a run back up quickly.
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Review of Forecast for Aug 17, 2015 Mild bullish expectation panned out for the first half of the week. Even right after the release of the Fed minutes led to another attempt to push the market higher. As the narrative suddenly changed together wi ...
End-of-day Update: The original upside target from Jun 8 (top purple highlight) was tagged at channel mid and we’ve got 2nd channel break since. Channel break from channel mid usual starts a more serious down trend. The downside target is where the ...
Review of Forecast for Aug 10, 2015 Sideway market expectation was correct but China's sudden devaluation actions amplified the magnitude of the two-way market from the expected 1% to 1.5%. Swing low formed as expected. The breadth analog model di ...
Well, it is my bragging time. What I posted this morning before open: AL is afterhours low at 2053.75. PDL-100 is 100% range below previous day low near the same area. What I posted at the bottom: ORL is open range low at 2056.75 ...
Review of Forecast for Aug 3, 2015 Range completely trapped within the range from the week before. Sideway expectation panned out nicely. End of week bearish actions confirming swing top potential. The breadth analog model did an excellent job las ...
Mid-day update: As explained yesterday before market open, the support zone holds, we get a push to the upper parking zone / previous week high area. NFP week strikes the uninformed bears again. Learn about STOPD and start making informed ...
Pre-Open Update: Non-Farm Payroll Week script in play. Monday found support at previous week midpoint. According to STOPD we know what to expect from here – clearing Monday high will likely give way to 2130s. Last time I posted that 2056 matters a ...
