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S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Aug 3, 2015
2015 Aug 1 Sat 11:15:44 | by
Review of Forecast for Jul 27, 2015
Initial gap down was contained within 0.5% and the forecasted mild 1% bounce took place right after. No trend expectation panned out nicely as S&P moved back to the midpoint of the week before. End of week mild bearish bias also worked out even though initial reaction to FOMC announcement looked like it can force the market higher. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week.
Forecast Starting Aug 3, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 31, 2015:
- Sideway market for the coming week with both directions likely contained within 1%
- Turning bearish going into 2nd and 3rd week
- Potential swing top forming
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
To access the market breadth analog forecast report daily, sign up as our paid member now
Emini S&P At Longer Term Critical Support Jul 27, 2015
2015 Jul 27 Mon 12:23:32 | by
Mid-day update: Why 2056 on Emini S&P Matters? You need to look at the bigger picture to know. Here is the bird’s eye view.
Emini S&P is fighting to hold the first quarter close. It is also, interestingly, where the 200 days simple moving average (SMA) is. Based on pure STOPD projection, if Emini S&P fails to hold this zone again, a drop to first quarter low will trigger waterfall effect down to previous year midpoint.
Close up view below is telling us the original down channel is in play again with 2030 and below in play as long as Emini cannot close above the lower parking zone (2075-2085) on daily basis.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jul 27, 2015
2015 Jul 25 Sat 11:46:18 | by
Review of Forecast for Jul 20, 2015
Bearish bias worked out perfectly as Monday formed the top. S&P dropped to the 1.5% mark which led to further downside into the end of the week. Not even Amazon surprise earning could stop the drop down to weekly open gap below. The breadth analog model did a great job last week.
Forecast Starting Jul 27, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 24, 2015:
- 1% bounce potential in place
- Mild bearish bias towards end of the week
- Printing -1.5% or more on closing basis will point to all out selloff potential
- No trend for the coming 2 weeks
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
To access the market breadth analog forecast report daily, sign up as our paid member now
2015 Jul 24
Emini S&P Downside Targets Jul 24, 2015
Mid-day Update: Posted on Tuesday what to expect for the rest of the week. Here is the updated 15-minute chart. Obviously, previous week midpoint (red zone) was tagged and breached on retest. Previous week low (PWL) and the big gap below is now in pl ...
Mid-day Update: Posted on Tuesday what to expect for the rest of the week. Here is the updated 15-minute chart. Obviously, previous week midpoint (red zone) was tagged and breached on retest. Previous week low (PWL) and the big gap below is now in pl ...
2015 Jul 21
Emini S&P First Challenge Against Quarterly Resistance Jul 21, 2015
Mid-day Update: Emini S&P tested the previous quarter breakdown zone (i.e. crime scene) from below and is being rejected on this first try. Bird eye’s view below showing what happened. As I stated in STOPD, it is not the extremes that ...
Mid-day Update: Emini S&P tested the previous quarter breakdown zone (i.e. crime scene) from below and is being rejected on this first try. Bird eye’s view below showing what happened. As I stated in STOPD, it is not the extremes that ...
2015 Jul 19
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jul 20, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jul 13, 2015 First we have Greece last minute deal done, ramping S&P higher to the 1.5% mark which indicated further upside into the end of the week. Then Google earning helped to keep the price up til the end of the wee ...
Review of Forecast for Jul 13, 2015 First we have Greece last minute deal done, ramping S&P higher to the 1.5% mark which indicated further upside into the end of the week. Then Google earning helped to keep the price up til the end of the wee ...
2015 Jul 15
Emini S&P Tagged Upper Parking Zone Jul 15, 2015
Mid-day Update: Emini S&P tagged its upper parking zone after gapped above the lower one in the beginning of this week. ...
Mid-day Update: Emini S&P tagged its upper parking zone after gapped above the lower one in the beginning of this week. ...
2015 Jul 11
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jul 13, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jul 6, 2015 Even though the situation in Greece is messing up the markets, the down trend in force for the week kept the bulls from pushing S&P higher. The original projection of 5% decline from the week that produced th ...
Review of Forecast for Jul 6, 2015 Even though the situation in Greece is messing up the markets, the down trend in force for the week kept the bulls from pushing S&P higher. The original projection of 5% decline from the week that produced th ...
2015 Jul 9
Emini S&P500 Consolidation Below Support Suggests Continuation Jul 9, 2015
Mid-day update: S&P consolidating at the low of 2nd quarter 2015 on daily basis implies continuation to the downside is more likely. Follow chart of SPY illustrates the point clearly. Close up view of Emini S&P 15-min chart shows ...
Mid-day update: S&P consolidating at the low of 2nd quarter 2015 on daily basis implies continuation to the downside is more likely. Follow chart of SPY illustrates the point clearly. Close up view of Emini S&P 15-min chart shows ...
2015 Jul 6
Emini S&P Channel Magic Still In Force July 6, 2015
Mid-day Update: Have not posted the channel chart for a while since last week we were dealing with clash of the bulls and bears on higher timeframes. Last time I posted the channel chart was on Jun 24, 2015 and correctly predicted the drop back down ...
Mid-day Update: Have not posted the channel chart for a while since last week we were dealing with clash of the bulls and bears on higher timeframes. Last time I posted the channel chart was on Jun 24, 2015 and correctly predicted the drop back down ...
