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S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jul 6, 2015
2015 Jul 4 Sat 10:34:39 | by
Review of Forecast for Jun 29, 2015
Gap lower on Greece situation. That ruled out the potential for a 1% bounce at the start of the week and led to continuous selling the rest of the week even though S&P gapped higher every trading day. The breadth analog model did a great job last week.
Forecast Starting Jul 6, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 2, 2015:
- Another Greece moment this weekend, reaction to surprise development can lead to volatility in both directions not predictable by the model
- Down trend in force
- Risk of a significant top in place with 10% or more decline
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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S&P500 ETF (SPY) at Bull Bear Juncture on July 4, 2015
2015 Jul 4 Sat 10:17:22 | by
End of day update after July 2, 2015 close: SPY is stuck right at the head and shoulder neckline waiting for the results from Greece over the weekend.
SPY got the first target at the start of the week. Now if it fails to hold up here, the head and shoulder target (red zone) will be in play.
S&P500 ETF (SPY) First Downside Target Tagged Jun 29, 2015
2015 Jun 29 Mon 16:40:59 | by
End of day update: As explained yesterday, there are 2 obvious downside targets to watch out for.
Today we got the first one.
This morning my premium members even saw me posted a rare warning with my real-time commentary.
Want to see my real-time analysis, join us now!
2015 Jun 29
FTW Emini Nasdaq 100 2% Drop Jun 29, 2015
Mentioned this in my real-time commentary this morning. Looking good! Update 2:25 pm: 2% drop materialized Want real-time expert analysis? Become my premium member today! ...
Mentioned this in my real-time commentary this morning. Looking good! Update 2:25 pm: 2% drop materialized Want real-time expert analysis? Become my premium member today! ...
2015 Jun 28
S&P500 ETF (SPY) Making a Perfect Head and Shoulder Jun 28, 2015
Last month I posted a chart on SPY back on May 27th stating that the upside was rejected and we should be expecting downside actions. A month later, the same resistance line continue to work with 2 more factors weighting in: 1. False Breakout Agains ...
Last month I posted a chart on SPY back on May 27th stating that the upside was rejected and we should be expecting downside actions. A month later, the same resistance line continue to work with 2 more factors weighting in: 1. False Breakout Agains ...
2015 Jun 26
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 29, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jun 22, 2015 Rumor over the weekend on Greece led to a jump of almost 1% higher. All week selling since at the predicted 2% magnitude. The breadth analog model did a great job last week. Forecast Starting Jun 29, 2015 ...
Review of Forecast for Jun 22, 2015 Rumor over the weekend on Greece led to a jump of almost 1% higher. All week selling since at the predicted 2% magnitude. The breadth analog model did a great job last week. Forecast Starting Jun 29, 2015 ...
2015 Jun 24
Emini S&P Trapped Channel Play Jun 24, 2015
End of day update: Emini S&P still trapped in the same channel structural as explained yesterday. Re-entering the down channel will lead to very fast drop down to the channel mid around low 2080s. If Emini S&P successfully defend the curren ...
End of day update: Emini S&P still trapped in the same channel structural as explained yesterday. Re-entering the down channel will lead to very fast drop down to the channel mid around low 2080s. If Emini S&P successfully defend the curren ...
2015 Jun 23
Emini S&P Stuck Between Long and Short Term Channels Jun 23, 2015
Mid day update: Emini found resistance at longer term resistance as we can see from the chart below. But last week gave Emini S&P a reason to stay bullish as you can see from the chart below. So it is stuck for now. ...
Mid day update: Emini found resistance at longer term resistance as we can see from the chart below. But last week gave Emini S&P a reason to stay bullish as you can see from the chart below. So it is stuck for now. ...
2015 Jun 20
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 22, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jun 15, 2015 The expectation of volatile price actions was correct with 1% swing down and then 2% straight up. The swing top potential is there given Friday's weak close but it is still under development. The breadth analog ...
Review of Forecast for Jun 15, 2015 The expectation of volatile price actions was correct with 1% swing down and then 2% straight up. The swing top potential is there given Friday's weak close but it is still under development. The breadth analog ...
2015 Jun 17
Emini S&P Back Up To Channel Top Again Jun 17, 2015
End of day update: The channel play just won’t quit. As noted before that Emini S&P is likely to pop back up, we got that this morning and right after FOMC announcement, the move back to the channel top was completed. ...
End of day update: The channel play just won’t quit. As noted before that Emini S&P is likely to pop back up, we got that this morning and right after FOMC announcement, the move back to the channel top was completed. ...
