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S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting May 18, 2015
2015 May 16 Sat 13:45:44 | by
Review of Forecast for May 11, 2015
The expectation of 1.5% or more upside was interrupted by price shock early in the week. Yet S&P held up fine at previous week midpoint and indeed started a rally of near 2%. The breadth analog model did not anticipated the shock so it was not helping last week.
Forecast Starting May 18, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of May 15, 2015:
- Limited upside of 1.5% with the potential of starting a significant decline
- Once 1.5% down side has materialized, extending to 2.5% or more will be very likely
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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S&P500 Resistance Trend Line Breakout vs. Potential FBO Against April High May 15, 2015
2015 May 15 Fri 12:53:50 | by
Yesterday I posted the chart on the potential breakout of the resistance trend line that led to the run to new high for the year.
Now that Emini S&P has tagged April high but failed to hold above that, a potential False Breakout on monthly scale is in place. Last false breakout on monthly was earlier this month against April low and that led to a very strong reaction as seen in the chart below (updated to mid day).
Closing below previous week high will signal serious trouble going into next week with the up channel support (highlight in green) being the first stop to the downside. Breaking the up channel points to the magic 2050 area that was tagged every month this year so far.
S&P500 Challenging the Triangle Resistance Again May 14, 2015
2015 May 14 Thu 12:15:07 | by
A simple overview of what is happening so far mid day.
Zooming into this week it is clear what the bulls want.
Will the tagging of the resistance line or Monday high (i.e. the yellow zone) trigger massive stop run?
2015 May 13
S&P500 Entering End Stage of Its Compression May 13, 2015
S&P500 is still trapped within the same range over the past 4 weeks. Its compression will have to be unwinded somehow. And it can start very soon given the various trend lines all tightening up at this point. Option expiration this week, check o ...
S&P500 is still trapped within the same range over the past 4 weeks. Its compression will have to be unwinded somehow. And it can start very soon given the various trend lines all tightening up at this point. Option expiration this week, check o ...
2015 May 9
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting May 11, 2015
Review of Forecast for May 4, 2015 The expectation of 2nd week of correction predicted the scenario correctly. Bottom out within the week too. The breadth analog model did an excellent job again. Forecast Starting May 11, 2015 Summary of the ...
Review of Forecast for May 4, 2015 The expectation of 2nd week of correction predicted the scenario correctly. Bottom out within the week too. The breadth analog model did an excellent job again. Forecast Starting May 11, 2015 Summary of the ...
2015 May 8
Nasdaq 100 Still Holding On Its Breakout Support May 8, 2015
Breakout play mentioned last month is still in effect. I updated the chart here with 2 yellow blocks highlighting the interesting fact that the first pullback took 2 months to complete. And now, although the breakout happened early, it was unstable ...
Breakout play mentioned last month is still in effect. I updated the chart here with 2 yellow blocks highlighting the interesting fact that the first pullback took 2 months to complete. And now, although the breakout happened early, it was unstable ...
2015 May 7
S&P500 Burden of Proof Lies With The Bulls May 7, 2015
After 2 big range directional down days there were still people dumb enough to short the previous day close / current day open. They provided the fuel driving the stock market higher this morning. This pullback is expected and in progress. The real ...
After 2 big range directional down days there were still people dumb enough to short the previous day close / current day open. They provided the fuel driving the stock market higher this morning. This pullback is expected and in progress. The real ...
2015 May 6
S&P500 Outlook According To STOPD on May 6, 2015
First quarter high rejected at the top yellow area. Fall down to previous year high / close zone at the lower yellow area. Now the break down is in place. First quarter midpoint marked by the red zone is in play. If SPY can close above previous ye ...
First quarter high rejected at the top yellow area. Fall down to previous year high / close zone at the lower yellow area. Now the break down is in place. First quarter midpoint marked by the red zone is in play. If SPY can close above previous ye ...
2015 May 4
S&P500 Still Trapped in the Box
Mid-day update of the daily chart that predicted the fake outs on both ends last week. ...
Mid-day update of the daily chart that predicted the fake outs on both ends last week. ...
2015 May 2
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting May 4, 2015
Review of Forecast for Apr 27, 2015 The significant selling warning nailed the scenario completely. The breadth analog model did an excellent job again. Forecast Starting May 4, 2015 Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my ...
Review of Forecast for Apr 27, 2015 The significant selling warning nailed the scenario completely. The breadth analog model did an excellent job again. Forecast Starting May 4, 2015 Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my ...
