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S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 23, 2015
2015 Mar 21 Sat 15:26:03 | by
Review of Mar 16, 2015
Bullish bias realized for the week. Even though FOMC decision has driven S&P going straight up, S&P500 could barely enter the +2.5% boundary. A good forecast overall.
Forecast Starting Mar 23, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 20, 2015:
- Neutral all across implies limited up side (+1.5%) and down side (-2%) in coming 5 trading days
- The trend down pattern suggest S&P500 will likely start to retrace its excessive up move the week after
- Higher than usual chance of pushing below –2.5% by 3rd week from now
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
To access the market breadth analog forecast report daily, sign up as our paid member now.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
2015 Mar 14 Sat 10:48:59 | by
Review of Mar 9, 2015 Forecast
Downside risk within 2.5% was realized and Trend Down was in force all week. First posted forecast did a good job.
Forecast Starting Mar 16, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 13, 2015:
- Mild bullish bias pointing to up drift of 1% or more in coming 5 trading days.
- Critical decision to be made in the week after should down trend on daily wants to continue.
- A move beyond 2% from previous week close is unlikely.
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
To access the market breadth analog forecast report daily, sign up as our paid member now.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 9, 2015
2015 Mar 9 Mon 14:17:00 | by
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close on March 6, 2015:
- Downside risk of 2.5% or more still exist but under control.
- In coming 10 days, S&P500 is more likely to drift sideway pinning itself within +/- 2% from previous week close, slightly favouring the bulls purely based on the numbers.
- Beyond that, S&P is tilting towards more downside as it will likely move out of the +/- 2% area. It is also likely to resume the down trend.
Snapshot of the expectations below:
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
To access the market breadth analog forecast report daily, sign up as our paid member now.
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Last week, everyone yelling year end rally yet S&P 500 keep dropping. This week, everyone turned bearish yet S&P 500 held the ground like a fortress. Last week is expected to drop into this Monday and find a bottom this week to finish the o ...
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