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Market Internals 2013-06-20

2013 Jun 20 Thu 20:56:23 | by Lawrence

Monthly update on market internals.

The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 Jun 20 close.

image

Reading

1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) well above neutral zone heading down

2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) moving down towards oversold area

3. 3-Day Advance Issues (green line) sold off down to new low together with S&P

 

Inference

a. #1 is bullish pointing to selloff should be bought

b. #2 points to a short term bottom is coming soon

c. #3 4th lower low matching the S&P points to a complex low in the making

 

Last update I was looking for a top that will lead to significant correction. We have that in progress now.

This corrective move in ES has not produced a bearish trend in 3-Day Advance Issues or TIck16 which implies another important swing low is in the making.

To time the swing low focus on Tick Index based divergence over a 2 to 3 day period to identify the potential bottom. Another sign to look for is that 3-Day Advance Issues would stay at the bottom for several days creating a powerful setup to squeeze S&P higher.

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Just one piece of article talking about reasonable expectation of QE "tapering" already gave many daytraders heart attack during the trading day. Imagine what would happen if Bennie tell us QE will be terminated at once!

Not that I am complaining - after all, Emini S&P moved exactly as I predicted earlier in the day. Even the part that the gap were not likely to be filled was correct. Sometimes bots are predictable indeed!

The reporter (Mr. Robin Harding from Financial Times) came out later on Twitter that everyone should chill because he has no insider info whatsoever.

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Where Are The Warren Buffett Admirers?

2013 Jun 9 Sun 12:43:40 | by Lawrence

Saw this in the news that this year Warren's charity lunch auction did not go that well.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/warren-buffett-charity-lunch-sold-for-1-million-plus-1.1316848

I remember last year the auction settled above $3 millions and it is confirmed in the piece that it was $3.4 millions.

But this year it is just above $1 million. So what happens to all the fans of Warren Buffett?

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2013 Jun 6
Nikkei First Leg Down Likely Completed

When S&P was breaking its previous day low and flushed below 1600. Nikkei had a major stop run that cleared its 12800 downside target I mentioned a few days ago. The break of 12800 unlocked a wave of selling that dropped 400 points quickly and bo ...

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2013 May 23
CME Hikes Margins on Nikkei Related Markets Again

As expected, CME increases margins on the Nikkei related products again. Not 10% or 20%. We are talking about another 33% higher after last increase back in April. Not even major CFD firms need to do that at all. What is the agenda behind this mov ...

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2013 May 23
Example Chart On Open Interest Changes In Emini S&P

Just a chart showing the concept of changes in open interest can be useful. [singlepic id=79] ...

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2013 May 22
The Madness of QE Has To Stop Now

From New York Times, http://lens.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/05/22/societal-ills-spike-in-crisis-stricken-greece/?hp Stop the pay out to the fat cats and solve this global financial problem with humility. ...

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2013 May 19
Year of the Snake Bite

I have written earlier this year about the Chinese lunar / solar cycle in Year of the Snake and the Chinese 19-Year Lunar Cycle. It is interesting to review the chart right now as it has marked the swing turns of this year so far quite remarkably. ...

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2013 May 19
Market Internals 2013-05-19

My monthly update on market internals. The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 May 17 close. Reading 1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) moving back up to right below neutral zone. 2. Sho ...

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2013 May 14
Crude Oil Outlook

Daily chart on crude. I marked the first quarter STOPD Levels. If there is a 3rd push back up, it will be back up to 107-107.5 where the 1st quarter low is. It is not a long term bullish play. Instead, this 3rd push up is a short term counter- ...

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