Trading Edges That Last
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Dow 30 Jul 25 to Jul 29 Outlook
Lawrence’s Comment
As expected, rallied most of the week once a low was established on Monday. 200% absolute range expansion completed and stalled from there. Closed the week above Y+1
Outlook
Difficult situation here. All eyes are now on US debt ceiling b.s. to be resolved. The pressure on USD across the majors last week clearly provided fuel to drive the US stock market higher.
If there is a deal, the first shock is obviously selling the news.
The details of the deal, however, will be more important after the first 20 minutes is over. If the deal is more of the same, USD will continue its self destruction path and US stocks will go higher. In this situation, we get Y+3 and Y+4 by August.
Wild swings back down to B-0 or even Y-1 is not bearish if it is driven by the 1st shock from the news. However, if B-0 acts as resistance after the shock, we will be facing a nasty sell off down to at least Y-4 to B-2 area.
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