Dow 30 Jun 23 to Jun 27 Outlook

Recap
First half of the week playing out perfectly like a normal 50% range consolidation around Y-1. Then FOMC announcement changed everything. The upside breakout of the tight range gave us 100% expansion against the range above Y-0. By Friday option expiration nothing could happen since many option positions were messed up badly. Closed the week above Y-0 and midpoint.

Outlook
Inside week if continuous contract is used. Complete reversal if using cash index or June contract.

Surprising to many, this is not a bullish setup on weekly.

Normally consolidation should follow wide range swings like this with reduced range.

The trouble in Ukraine and the restart of the sovereign debt issues last week could force Dow to drop sharply back down to B-0 first.