EURUSD Mar 11 to Mar 15 Outlook

Recap
Consolidated above Y-1 first half of the week. Then strong reaction to tag of Y-1 sent euro back up to also Y-0. Then news shock came and trapped the lonngs and induced a flush to below Y-1. Closed the week above Y-1 and near week low.

Outlook
A double bottom visible on 4 hour and higher timeframes was destroyed by the news shock. The usual reaction should have been a flush to 100% expansion target at the other side. Thus Y-2 should have been tagged last week but that did not happen. Everyone take Merkel’s words very seriously.

If Merkel is correct that euro was falling all along because of manipulation by the speculators, the warning would create a completely opposite effect she wants because the artificial buying created from her words will make the long side so crowded that a flush would be unavoidable.

If Merkel is wrong, euro actually falls because of real weaknesses. It means there is real outflow of capital from euro dollar economies. Then there is nothing she can do to stop the decline of euro in the long run.

Mostly hands off on euro this week unless I get a very powerful long set up. For example, upside breakout of B+1 with B+1 turning into support. It will worth a shot for a squeeze up to B+3.