EURUSD Mar 12 to Mar 16 Outlook

Recap
Sold off early in the week but failed to tag Y-2. More b.s. coming from Greece forced a wild short squeeze mid week back up to the resistance level right below Y-0. After the fiasco euro resumed its selloff and closed at the low of the week.

Outlook
I was looking for 1.30 from this move and was not happy that it was stopped short from getting there due to these b.s. from EU zone again.

The interesting thing, however, is that euro dollar is so weak that it closed at the low of the week implies a potential breakdown scenario is in play.

It is a repeat of what happened before when ECB and EU members keep popping euro by all kinds of news yet the reality of those banks in Europe were toasted was exposed. If the default of Greece triggers payout in enough CDS, some European banks will fail and ECB / EU scrambling to save them will not be helpful to euro at all.

So once a breakdown happens, 1.25-1.26 area is now possible.