The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 Feb 17 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) below neutral zone but not dropping
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) pulled back to neutral zone
3. 3 Days Advance Issues (green line) diverging from new high printed by S&P itself
Inference
a. #1 in bearish consolidation mode. That means 30-min timeframe intraday has no continuation strength. Both overbought and oversold on 30-min and up would result in reversal easily.
b. #2 points to breakout mode as the index has compressed at neutral zone for days.
c. #3 points to a pullback in breadth (advance issues) back down to neutral zone is necessary. It can correct itself without dragging the price of S&P lower. If so it will be very bullish for S&P.
Last update predicted it was still in favour of the bulls and every push lowered were good long opportunities. That was indeed what happened. This may change if #1 starts to slide lower away from the neutral zone into more bearish level.
Review of Forecast for Aug 24, 2015
Extreme intraday swings expectations played out. The extreme gap down led to violent bounce back up to fill the gap was unexpected. The breadth ...
Review of Forecast for Jul 27, 2015
Initial gap down was contained within 0.5% and the forecasted mild 1% bounce took place right after. No trend expectation panned out nicely as ...
Review of Forecast for Jan 25, 2016
Continuation to the upside as expected. Pushed higher to the end of the week as projected. Upside limited to 1.5% to 2% as forecasted. ...
As the long term Tick16 index is staying in the bullish zone, and that the short term Tick16 has moved away from the long term index for some time already, ...
Review of Mar 23, 2015
Limited upside bias with more downside risk realized. The more negative outlook was not available until after Monday though. Overall an accceptable risk forecast comparing to ...
Review of Forecast for Jan 11, 2016
Monday did not produce a flush down of 2% thus the 2% upside was not in play. Custom breadth did not reverse, so we ...
Monthly update on market internals. The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 October 22 close. ...
Review of Forecast for Jun 29, 2015
Gap lower on Greece situation. That ruled out the potential for a 1% bounce at the start of the week and led to continuous ...
Review of Forecast for Jul 4, 2016
Sharp pullback at the beginning of the week as forecasted. Since then rally all the way up and capped below the 1.5% upside as ...
Market Internals 2013-02-17
My monthly update on market internals.
The current snapshot of S&P 500 3-Day Advance Issues, Tick16 Short Term + Long Term as of 2013 Feb 17 close.
Reading
1. Long Term Tick16 (yellow line) below neutral zone but not dropping
2. Short Term Tick16 (red line) pulled back to neutral zone
3. 3 Days Advance Issues (green line) diverging from new high printed by S&P itself
Inference
a. #1 in bearish consolidation mode. That means 30-min timeframe intraday has no continuation strength. Both overbought and oversold on 30-min and up would result in reversal easily.
b. #2 points to breakout mode as the index has compressed at neutral zone for days.
c. #3 points to a pullback in breadth (advance issues) back down to neutral zone is necessary. It can correct itself without dragging the price of S&P lower. If so it will be very bullish for S&P.
Last update predicted it was still in favour of the bulls and every push lowered were good long opportunities. That was indeed what happened. This may change if #1 starts to slide lower away from the neutral zone into more bearish level.
Share