MBO Issue 50 (Feb 2016) Special Update
By Lawrence
Feb 13th, 2016 Special Update on S&P, Euro and Gold.
In the February issue of MBO, I correctly predicted that Euro will not be able to go lower while S&P will be forced to retest the low of the year. Gold pushed higher as forecasted back up to tag the midpoint from previous year and now trading at its resistance zone.
Custom breadth chart on S&P 500 as of Feb 12, 2016 below.
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Comments
Expanding triangle on the ES hourly since Feb 8. Swing low, swing high, new swing low, new swing high (where we are now). That suggests that a new swing low would be bullish if we see no follow through/Wyckoff spring. Resistance at 1893 area for at least two reasons.
1893.50 is right by 200 ema on the hourly. It is also a measured move from 1805 low, using the highest daily low and the lowest daily high tagged from the period Feb 8, 9, 10, and 12, Feb 11 being an island reveral. 1805–1843.50-1855-1893.50
My son has been hospitalized (he will be ok). I will be back here when life allows me. The market will always be here.
Your thesis of a move up through the end of February is making more and more sense. 1987.50 on the March ES looks more and more likely.
Long side has not unloaded much into this “bounce” making the aggressive shorts paying the price as key support resistance zones are so far apart on higher timeframes.