S&P 500 Apr 29 to May 03 Outlook

Recap
Dow provided the reason to go higher but it is ES that showed us what short squeeze can really do. Excluding the Y-1 low, ES did almost 40-point run straight up without any pullback if the 2-min crash is ignored. If the 2-min crash is accounted for as a normal move, it was still a 30-point run from that 2-min crash low straight up to also the year high so far. Closed the week at Y+1 and above midpoint.

Outlook
Historically, volatility almost always induce more volatility. The past 3 weeks gave us the best intraday range so far for a long time. It is not good news though as prior volatile environments all led to major bear markets which are difficult to trade in general.

This week as long as ES fails to push much higher above B+1, we are likely to get a move back down to B-0 and Y-0.