S&P 500 Dec 05 to Dec 09 Outlook

By News Robot

Lawrence’s Comment

Recap
Was looking for a swing bottom to trade off and this is one hell of a rally started not by a flush bottom, instead by government interventions twice within the week. 3rd push up by Friday completed 200% absolute range expansion and started a pullback to Thursday close. Closed the week below Y+3.

Outlook
B-0 in play if no more intervention bullshit.

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Comments
  • geosing December 4, 2011 at 2:01 pm

    LC, it would be very educational if you can do a mid-week update or an update when there is something significant affecting the outlook – of course, based on time available and for the instruments that may merit such an update. With all of this news shocks and intervention theatrics, it may help us tremendously.

  • Lawrence Chan December 7, 2011 at 9:52 pm

    3 days in a row of sell off could not force ES to even tag the closest gap below.

    2010 Yearly Close obviously playing a very important row here as ES and SPY both flirting around that (mid 1250s for ES) and tried to build a bottom from above.

    I think ES does not have a lot of upside left no matter what.

    What I see right now is that ES is sitting at the top of its range based on a very wide down channel formed from last year. Since there is no major improvement in terms of earnings and other factors, ES is simply going sideway swinging based on its valuation off the other asset classes.

    If the channel top is honoured, ES will likely travel back down to 1200 area soon.

  • geosing December 8, 2011 at 7:28 pm

    It sure didn’t have a lot of upside left, did it? 🙂 Got spanked today and I see that you guys played it just right. Thank you for taking the time. It helps a lot to see how you interpret the developing PA after the initial weekly outlook forecast and expectations.

  • Lawrence Chan December 8, 2011 at 8:27 pm

    The reason why I keep doing the weekly homework is that when big picture price level(s) in play, I am prepared to react properly.

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