Recap Like NQ, gapped above Y+1 and immediately dropped back down. The FBO gave us at least Y-0 as target and indeed that was tagged before a huge short squeeze induced by the politicians. Not sure what to say about the squeeze. The rejection of Y-0 points to retest of Y+1. We got that last week too. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.
Outlook Long term shorts are in doubt of their positions and we are seeing signs of standing bids across the board. It is rare that we see this happening right before the seasonal weaknesses in December. As oppose to what many people believe that December is bullish. December is decidedly bearish until mid month almost every year. Given this backdrop and the way NQ is moving, I will stay bearish even if ES rallies til the end of this week. I suspect we will get very wild swings from breaking to new year high on just hopes of a deal in Washington to total melt down back to previous year close. It is clear to me that weekly and monthly are decidedly bearish with very limited upside. The problem with trading higher timeframes like weekly is that the volatility associated with them can be very difficult to deal with for normal investors. Focus on the technical break down below the up trendline guarding ES so far on daily. Once it is broken, it is very likely we get a selloff back down to 1360 and below quickly. This setup is easier to deal with because of the defined risk.
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
Gapped above Y+1 to start the week but failed to hold above. As a result, a quick rush down to Y-0 and in turn opened the door to Y-1. ...
Lawrence's Comment Recap Gapped above Y+1 to start the week but failed to hold above. As a result, a quick rush down to Y-0 and in turn opened the door to Y-1. ...READ MOREFor more information about this report please refer to the Market Bias Informant pageREAD MOREIntraday Cycle Projection (ES) 2018-12-26Dow 30 Mar 11 to Mar 15 OutlookDow 30 Jun 16 to Jun 20 Outlook3DP Odds Table (ES) 2017-04-21Intraday Cycle Projection (SPY) 2019-12-13Intraday Cycle Projection (SPY) 2018-11-223DP Odds Table (ES) 2020-08-04Real-time Commentaries 2020-6-173DP Odds Table (ES) 2017-11-01Precog Vision – US Indices 2016-3-16
S&P 500 Dec 10 to Dec 14 Outlook
Lawrence’s Comment
Like NQ, gapped above Y+1 and immediately dropped back down. The FBO gave us at least Y-0 as target and indeed that was tagged before a huge short squeeze induced by the politicians.
Not sure what to say about the squeeze. The rejection of Y-0 points to retest of Y+1. We got that last week too. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.
Outlook
Long term shorts are in doubt of their positions and we are seeing signs of standing bids across the board. It is rare that we see this happening right before the seasonal weaknesses in December.
As oppose to what many people believe that December is bullish. December is decidedly bearish until mid month almost every year. Given this backdrop and the way NQ is moving, I will stay bearish even if ES rallies til the end of this week.
I suspect we will get very wild swings from breaking to new year high on just hopes of a deal in Washington to total melt down back to previous year close. It is clear to me that weekly and monthly are decidedly bearish with very limited upside. The problem with trading higher timeframes like weekly is that the volatility associated with them can be very difficult to deal with for normal investors.
Focus on the technical break down below the up trendline guarding ES so far on daily. Once it is broken, it is very likely we get a selloff back down to 1360 and below quickly. This setup is easier to deal with because of the defined risk.
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