Recap Everything said last week happened. Downside bias used up by Monday. Higher than usual volatility sending ES all the way back to all time high. Closed the week near Y+1 and week high.
Outlook The 2nd part of the rally was exposed to be the work of some central banks buying directly. This is different from what many believes to be a fair market. If you play this game, and you already know the central banks are involved, it is then all expected. In other words, it is fair and if you fail to anticipate that in your game plan, it is your fault.
Price shock will send ES back down to 50 area but not likely more. Seasonal low liquidity and reduced number of trading days will not allow the shorts to easily escape. Hence the strong support at 40-50 where the first batch of top pickers will bail.
S&P 500 Dec 22 to Dec 26 Outlook
Lawrence’s Comment
Everything said last week happened. Downside bias used up by Monday. Higher than usual volatility sending ES all the way back to all time high. Closed the week near Y+1 and week high.
Outlook
The 2nd part of the rally was exposed to be the work of some central banks buying directly. This is different from what many believes to be a fair market. If you play this game, and you already know the central banks are involved, it is then all expected. In other words, it is fair and if you fail to anticipate that in your game plan, it is your fault.
Price shock will send ES back down to 50 area but not likely more. Seasonal low liquidity and reduced number of trading days will not allow the shorts to easily escape. Hence the strong support at 40-50 where the first batch of top pickers will bail.
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