S&P 500 Jul 11 to Jul 15 Outlook

Recap
News driven market condition as noted in last week’s comment materialized. Messy price actions all week due to news / rumours yet our trusted NFP biases all worked out. Closed the week above Y+1 and near week high.

Outlook
Complex situation here as focus now mainly on US election. A swing top forming between B+1 to B+2 can cause very sharp drop back down to Y-0 and below. There are reasons that we see both strong run higher and steep selloff in coming weeks during this summer. Daytrading with mechanical biases would do fine in this environment but normal swing players may want to stay away from the indices for now.