Trading Edges That Last
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1998 Russian Bond Crisis Back in 1998, there was the Russian bond crisis. Following is the S&P500 daily chart at the time. Well, everything happening in ...READ MORELawrence's Comment Recap Similar to Dow, the bear trap built on Monday caught many bears by surprise and forced them to give up. The gap above, however, capped the rally. Bounced ...READ MORELawrence's Comment Recap Started the week gap lower to challenge Y-1 and bounced. Y-0 resistance sent Aussie lower to retset previous week close. That held and a squeeze was resulted. Yet, Aussie ...READ MOREUS Market Pre-Open 2013-3-21What Causes Fed To Hit the Panic Button?3DP Odds Table (ES) 2019-06-11Weekly Cycle Projection (SPY) 2021-12-273DP Odds Table (SPY) 2017-09-253DP Odds Table (SPY) 2014-03-25S&P 500 Jun 11 to Jun 15 OutlookIntraday Cycle Projection (ES) 2015-09-08Dow 30 Sep 10 to Sep 14 OutlookAUDUSD Oct 20 to Oct 24 Outlook
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S&P 500 Jul 15 to Jul 19 Outlook
Lawrence’s Comment
No pullback and no gap fill right off the start of the week. Price simply jump through every resistance levles above by gaps. Closed the week above Y+4 and near week high.
Outlook
We have not seen significant distribution yet, thus ES is not ready for big time selloff. At best a 20 points pullback is all bears can hope for right now.
It is possible July will spend the rest of the month (and going into early August) consolidating around B+2 down to B-1. The upside is limited but it will not be easy to daytrade in this environment on the short side.
Once a significant selloff started, there is really no support below for ES to hold once 1600 level is breached. How and when to engage in the short side will be difficult as it is likely to be triggered by some external events.
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