S&P 500 Jul 21 to Jul 25 Outlook
By News Robot
Lawrence’s Comment
Recap
Gapped higher near Y+1 to start the week. After failing to clear Y+1 gave us a drop back down to Y-0 and filled the open gap in 1 go. Then another squeeze higher back up to challenge Y+1. Yet failed again resulting in an even stronger selloff back down to the support mentioned last week. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.
Gapped higher near Y+1 to start the week. After failing to clear Y+1 gave us a drop back down to Y-0 and filled the open gap in 1 go. Then another squeeze higher back up to challenge Y+1. Yet failed again resulting in an even stronger selloff back down to the support mentioned last week. Closed the week near Y+1 and above midpoint.
Outlook
Lots of fuel used up in defending the 1950 level. It is not a bullish sign. If ES fails to clear B+1 decisively, we get another wild ride back down to B-1.
Whiplash actions potential this week.
Comments
I follow the highest low and the lowest high intraday using hour bars and longer term using daily charts,. On the SPX, the highest low on the daily was 1975.71, and the lowest high was 1979.85 (they are close together, separated by only four points–that suggests a trading range).
The low last week was 1955.59. Highest daily low (1975.71) minus 1955.59 is 20.12. Added to last week;s lowest high (1979.85), we get 1999.97.
If 79.86 SPX = S, then 1999.97 (aka 2000) would seem to be in play.
This is an interesting crossroad – if ES follows NQ, it is more bullish while following Dow, it is more bearish.
The inflection point developing in US dollar will be critical in deciding which way the stock mkt is heading. Very much a war / no-war stupidity. I will post some charts during past US-Russia conflicts related to the current situation later today for discussion.