Recap Similar to Dow and NQ, ES shot up whole week last week and recovered all the ground it lost over the past several weeks. Closed the week near week high and right below Y+2 / open gap from early November.
Outlook Back to daily and weekly level resistance zone. Clearing this area will allow ES to challenge year high quickly as it enters the seasonal bullish period. The problem with the setup, however, is that it is driven up without any volume, hence can induce significant size selling right here as trapped long finally get a chance to bail out.
Expecting a sharp selloff back down to B-1 and probably lower. I am not looking for a long term selloff continuation. I am talking about a very steep shake out before ES drifting higher during the December holiday season.
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
Tight range consolidation near Y-0 first half of the week. Then the whiplash mentioned last week came. First a push towards Y+1 and failed. Then collapsed at the end ...
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
A bounce was expected but not a huge rally like what we got last week. Somehow "good news" after "good news" were fed out during the holiday ...
One very reliable pattern showed up today (Jun 13, 2011) in Emini S&P that worths a more detailed explanation.
The Setup
Market down more than 2 to 3 percent from previous month ...
S&P 500 Nov 26 to Nov 30 Outlook
Lawrence’s Comment
Similar to Dow and NQ, ES shot up whole week last week and recovered all the ground it lost over the past several weeks. Closed the week near week high and right below Y+2 / open gap from early November.
Outlook
Back to daily and weekly level resistance zone. Clearing this area will allow ES to challenge year high quickly as it enters the seasonal bullish period. The problem with the setup, however, is that it is driven up without any volume, hence can induce significant size selling right here as trapped long finally get a chance to bail out.
Expecting a sharp selloff back down to B-1 and probably lower. I am not looking for a long term selloff continuation. I am talking about a very steep shake out before ES drifting higher during the December holiday season.
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