S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Jul 4, 2016
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Jun 27, 2016
Picture perfect reversal from the expected support zone on Dow in MBO special update. Sharp reversal as projected by custom breadth materialized. Intraday volatility spikes as expected. 1% up move gave us the expected 2% or more expansion. The breadth analog model did a perfect job for the week.
Forecast Starting Jul 4, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 1, 2016:
Custom market breadth 5-day in conflict with 20-day readings, sudden sharp pullback likely
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
As expected, the FBO mentioned last week gave us a drop back down to Y-0 and then Y-1. That turned Y-0 into strong resistance. Retest of Y-0 failed. ES ...
Lawrence's Comment Recap As expected, the FBO mentioned last week gave us a drop back down to Y-0 and then Y-1. That turned Y-0 into strong resistance. Retest of Y-0 failed. ES ...READ MOREFor more information about this report please refer to the Market Bias Informant pageREAD MOREReal-time Commentaries 2020-11-12Real-time Commentaries 2014-4-2S&P 500 Sep 29 to Oct 03 OutlookES Chart 2009-03-24Intraday Cycle Projection (SPY) 2019-02-07Hot n Cold (SPY) 2013-7-19Precog Vision – US Indices 2023-1-18Real-time Commentaries 2024-4-33DP Odds Table (SPY) 2013-01-24ES Chart 2002-11-19
S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Jul 4, 2016
Review of Forecast for Jun 27, 2016
Picture perfect reversal from the expected support zone on Dow in MBO special update. Sharp reversal as projected by custom breadth materialized. Intraday volatility spikes as expected. 1% up move gave us the expected 2% or more expansion. The breadth analog model did a perfect job for the week.
Forecast Starting Jul 4, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 1, 2016:
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Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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