S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Sep 5, 2016
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Aug 29, 2016
No 1% move in either direction led to range bounded actions, so 2% breakout play not triggered. Forecast of V-reversal play with downside action first was perfect. Short term breadth went into intraday oversold on both Wednesday and Thursday as projected. The breadth analog model did a perfect job last week.
Forecast Starting Sep 5, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Sep 2, 2016:
Breakout setup for 2% or more swing this week in both directions with bias for upside first and week of potential blowoff top in the making.
1% move to the downside will very likely give us 2% before end of the week and also leading to the breaking of the weekly up trend
Long term breadth may finally reach the over extended condition either this week or the week after
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Sep 5, 2016
Review of Forecast for Aug 29, 2016
No 1% move in either direction led to range bounded actions, so 2% breakout play not triggered. Forecast of V-reversal play with downside action first was perfect. Short term breadth went into intraday oversold on both Wednesday and Thursday as projected. The breadth analog model did a perfect job last week.
Forecast Starting Sep 5, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Sep 2, 2016:
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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