S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Apr 11, 2016
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Mar 28, 2016
Note: No forecast done for the week of Apr 4th due to busy schedule. No pullback at all, rally of 1.5% in place and led to further push higher to close at high of week. Extreme intraday volatility in both directions as forecasted. The breadth analog model did a good job for the week.
Forecast Starting Apr 11, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Apr 8, 2016:
Custom breadth rolling over pointing to daily level weaknesses
Potential slingshot move in the making with swing lower first more likely followed by an explosive up swing right after
Extreme intraday volatility in both direction expected
Multiple intraday turning points expected with wild swings that has to be identified with real-time breadth
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Due to the way Tick indices are constructed, they can be called statistics themselves. Unlike technical indicators that are directly derived from price series, Tick indices are indirectly correlated to ...
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S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Apr 11, 2016
Review of Forecast for Mar 28, 2016
Note: No forecast done for the week of Apr 4th due to busy schedule.
No pullback at all, rally of 1.5% in place and led to further push higher to close at high of week. Extreme intraday volatility in both directions as forecasted. The breadth analog model did a good job for the week.
Forecast Starting Apr 11, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Apr 8, 2016:
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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