S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Aug 3, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Jul 27, 2015
Initial gap down was contained within 0.5% and the forecasted mild 1% bounce took place right after. No trend expectation panned out nicely as S&P moved back to the midpoint of the week before. End of week mild bearish bias also worked out even though initial reaction to FOMC announcement looked like it can force the market higher. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week.
Forecast Starting Aug 3, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 31, 2015:
Sideway market for the coming week with both directions likely contained within 1%
Turning bearish going into 2nd and 3rd week
Potential swing top forming
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Overview
Emini overnight range 2147.50 to 2155.75 (at 9:00 am)
Overnight Midpoint 2151.50
Previous Week Close 2160.50
Battleplan for the Day
(premium member only content below)
Overview
Emini overnight range 2055.50 up to 2063.50 (at 7:15 am)
Overnight Midpoint 2059.50
Previous Week Mid 2070.00
Emini S&P is now trading at the top part of its range with ...
Overview Emini overnight range 2147.50 to 2155.75 (at 9:00 am) Overnight Midpoint 2151.50 Previous Week Close 2160.50 Battleplan for the Day (premium member only content below)READ MORE
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Aug 3, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jul 27, 2015
Initial gap down was contained within 0.5% and the forecasted mild 1% bounce took place right after. No trend expectation panned out nicely as S&P moved back to the midpoint of the week before. End of week mild bearish bias also worked out even though initial reaction to FOMC announcement looked like it can force the market higher. The breadth analog model did an excellent job last week.
Forecast Starting Aug 3, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jul 31, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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