S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Feb 22, 2016
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Feb 15, 2016
Up swing of more than 2.5% as expected. Extreme volatility warning materialized as S&P500 breaking all nearby intraday resistance levels. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.
Forecast Starting Feb 22, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Feb 19, 2016:
Potential swing top in the making
Extreme volatility warning
Exact turning point has to be identified with real-time breadth due to the high level of volatility
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
ES failed to clear Y+1, gave us a run for Y-0. Y-0 tagged and bounced. Failed to clear previous week close like Dow has opened the door to break ...
In the post on Nov 23rd, I mentioned that continuation rally is likely once the 2 breadth models realign. Now they are, so, as long as emini S&P is ...
Lawrence's Comment Recap ES failed to clear Y+1, gave us a run for Y-0. Y-0 tagged and bounced. Failed to clear previous week close like Dow has opened the door to break ...READ MOREIn the post on Nov 23rd, I mentioned that continuation rally is likely once the 2 breadth models realign. Now they are, so, as long as emini S&P is ...READ MOREFor more information about this report please refer to the Market Bias Informant pageREAD MORE
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Feb 22, 2016
Review of Forecast for Feb 15, 2016
Up swing of more than 2.5% as expected. Extreme volatility warning materialized as S&P500 breaking all nearby intraday resistance levels. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.
Forecast Starting Feb 22, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Feb 19, 2016:
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Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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