S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 1, 2015

Review of Forecast for May 25, 2015

The expectation of a modest decline was correct. 1.5% decline was registered but did not drop further thanks to rumors were spread about Greece at critical moment last week. The potential of a strong decline is shaping up but not confirmed yet. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.

Forecast Starting Jun 1, 2015

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of May 29, 2015:

• Volatile price actions expected this week
• Risk of 5% or more decline in the making over coming 3 weeks

Report Snapshot

Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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