S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Jun 20, 2016
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Jun 13, 2016
S&P intraday downside breakout fulfilled 100% weekly range expansion. Whiplash moves around 50% expansion level. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.
Forecast Starting Jun 20, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 17, 2016:
Server problem led to no data for Wed to Fri. Observation here partly based on broad market breadth readings.
Custom market breadth downside breakout points to more downside risk
Intraday volatility spikes expected
1% down move points to 2% or more downside push in play
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
Y-0 acted as support as expected and ES took off to tag Y+2 upside target. So precise that it feels like it is executed from a script. ...
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
S&P followed Dow's lead broke out upside. Stopped going higher right below 100% absolute range expansion when Dow completed its run. Immediately collapsed back down to previous week close. ...
Lawrence's Comment Recap Y-0 acted as support as expected and ES took off to tag Y+2 upside target. So precise that it feels like it is executed from a script. ...READ MORE
S&P500 Market Breadth Driven Short Term Forecast Starting Jun 20, 2016
Review of Forecast for Jun 13, 2016
S&P intraday downside breakout fulfilled 100% weekly range expansion. Whiplash moves around 50% expansion level. The breadth analog model did an excellent job for the week.
Forecast Starting Jun 20, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 17, 2016:
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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