S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 22, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Jun 15, 2015
The expectation of volatile price actions was correct with 1% swing down and then 2% straight up. The swing top potential is there given Friday’s weak close but it is still under development. The breadth analog model did a good job last week.
Forecast Starting Jun 22, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 19, 2015:
Real decision time for the situation with Greece is this weekend into Monday, reaction to surprise development can lead to volatility in both directions not predictable by the model
High probability for a sell off of 2% or more
Risk of a significant top with 8% or more decline increases
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 22, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jun 15, 2015
The expectation of volatile price actions was correct with 1% swing down and then 2% straight up. The swing top potential is there given Friday’s weak close but it is still under development. The breadth analog model did a good job last week.
Forecast Starting Jun 22, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 19, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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