S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 29, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Jun 22, 2015
Rumor over the weekend on Greece led to a jump of almost 1% higher. All week selling since at the predicted 2% magnitude. The breadth analog model did a great job last week.
Forecast Starting Jun 29, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 26, 2015:
Another deadline for the situation with Greece this weekend into Monday, reaction to surprise development can lead to volatility in both directions not predictable by the model just like last week
Potential bounce of 1% or more early next week
Failing to produce more than 1.5% bounce will lead to more selling into the end of the week
Risk of a significant top in place with 8% or more decline
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 29, 2015
Review of Forecast for Jun 22, 2015
Rumor over the weekend on Greece led to a jump of almost 1% higher. All week selling since at the predicted 2% magnitude. The breadth analog model did a great job last week.
Forecast Starting Jun 29, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 26, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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