S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Jun 6, 2016

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for May 30, 2016

Compression conditions in custom breadth continues. Attempts to breakout of the defined tight range all failed. Sudden reversals at the boundaries all week. The breadth analog model did a fair job for the week.

Forecast Starting Jun 6, 2016

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Jun 3, 2016:

Custom market breadth compression continues with major breakout imminent
Intraday volatility breakout imminent

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Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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