S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 30, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Mar 23, 2015
Limited upside bias with more downside risk realized. The more negative outlook was not available until after Monday though. Overall an accceptable risk forecast comparing to almost everyone calling for the market to go higher last weekend.
Forecast Starting Mar 30, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 27, 2015:
Potential bounce of 1% more likely than further push lower, at least in the beginning of next week
Trend down can resume quickly if the bounce fails to produce 2% or more upside
More weaknesses expected going into 2nd and 3rd week from now
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 30, 2015
Review of Mar 23, 2015
Limited upside bias with more downside risk realized. The more negative outlook was not available until after Monday though. Overall an accceptable risk forecast comparing to almost everyone calling for the market to go higher last weekend.
Forecast Starting Mar 30, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of March 27, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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