S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 7, 2016
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Feb 29, 2016
Volatile breakout play materialized. Real-time breadth turned bullish since early in the week the swing low was formed. Extreme volatility as forecasted. Swing top not produced as strong trend did not produce exhaustion in breadth during the week. The breadth analog model did a good job for the week.
Forecast Starting Mar 7, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Mar 4, 2016:
Custom breadth exhaustion in place, daily up trend will likely end abruptly, or at least going to sideway until the over extended condition is resolved
Once 1.5% drop is in place it is likely it will extend to 2.5% and more
Extreme volatility continues
Multiple intraday turning points expected with wild swings that has to be identified with real-time breadth
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 7, 2016
Review of Forecast for Feb 29, 2016
Volatile breakout play materialized. Real-time breadth turned bullish since early in the week the swing low was formed. Extreme volatility as forecasted. Swing top not produced as strong trend did not produce exhaustion in breadth during the week. The breadth analog model did a good job for the week.
Forecast Starting Mar 7, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Mar 4, 2016:
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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