S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 9, 2015
By Lawrence
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close on March 6, 2015:
Downside risk of 2.5% or more still exist but under control.
In coming 10 days, S&P500 is more likely to drift sideway pinning itself within +/- 2% from previous week close, slightly favouring the bulls purely based on the numbers.
Beyond that, S&P is tilting towards more downside as it will likely move out of the +/- 2% area. It is also likely to resume the down trend.
Snapshot of the expectations below:
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Mar 9, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close on March 6, 2015:
Snapshot of the expectations below:
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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