S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting May 30, 2016
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for May 23, 2016
Short term oversold conditions in custom breadth lead to breakout of the bull flag on daily chart. Down trend broken off previous week close. Intraday volatility expanded suddenly as expected. The breadth analog model did a fair job for the week.
Forecast Starting May 30, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of May 27, 2016:
Custom market breadth compression into neutral zone
Mid term market breadth compression points to breakout potential in both direction implying possibility of sudden major reversal
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
Similar to Dow except weaker. Gap top tested and bounced off. But failed to force for a gap fill above as well.
Outlook
Seldom do we get ES to ...
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting May 30, 2016
Review of Forecast for May 23, 2016
Short term oversold conditions in custom breadth lead to breakout of the bull flag on daily chart. Down trend broken off previous week close. Intraday volatility expanded suddenly as expected. The breadth analog model did a fair job for the week.
Forecast Starting May 30, 2016
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of May 27, 2016:
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Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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