S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Oct 12, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Oct 5, 2015
Gap and go week ruled out the potential of sharp pullback until next major resistance. Calmer market condition expectation was totally correct as VIX was crushed to multiple weeks low. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Oct 12, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Oct 9, 2015:
Sudden sharp pullback of 2% to 2.5% within the week potential
Volatility spike is expected for coming 2 weeks but not necessary carry into the 3rd week
Weak closing for this week will open door to sell shock the week after
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
Popped back up above Y-0 as expected. That was not enough to stop the selling as significant selling happened in the underlying components when ES was above 1660. The ...
Lawrence's Comment
Recap
ES pushed higher as expected. Month end bias kicked in on Thursday and Friday following the usual month end script. Closed the week above Y-0 and near week low.
...
Lawrence's Comment Recap Popped back up above Y-0 as expected. That was not enough to stop the selling as significant selling happened in the underlying components when ES was above 1660. The ...READ MORE
S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Oct 12, 2015
Review of Forecast for Oct 5, 2015
Gap and go week ruled out the potential of sharp pullback until next major resistance. Calmer market condition expectation was totally correct as VIX was crushed to multiple weeks low. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Oct 12, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Oct 9, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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