S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Sep 14, 2015

By Lawrence

Review of Forecast for Sep 7, 2015

Extreme swings expectations played out. 3% swing up and than 3% swing down fulfilled both upside and downside expectations. The breadth analog model did a great job last week.

Forecast Starting Sep 14, 2015

Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Sep 11, 2015:

FOMC decision in coming week can shock the market in ways not predictable by the models
Upside likely cap by 1% with 2% decline going into end of the week and the following week
Volatility pattern suggests more intraday extreme swings in the making

Report Snapshot

Short Explanation About The Model

My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.

For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method

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