S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Sep 21, 2015
By Lawrence
Review of Forecast for Sep 14, 2015
Another week with extreme swings of 3% up and then 3% down thanks to FOMC interest rate decision. The normal expectation of 1% upside cap failed to capture the FOMC induced volatility. Weaknesses into end of week projection was correct. Extreme volatility expectation was also spot on. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Sep 21, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Sep 18, 2015:
Upside likely cap by 1%
Once 1.5% decline on daily closing basis has happened, a slide of 2.5% or more decline will be likely
Potential sell shock into end of week and early part of 2nd week
Volatility pattern suggests more intraday extreme swings in the making
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Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
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We now know that moving average can be measured more effectively when average bar range is used as the yardstick. How do we utilitize this information?
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S&P500 Short Term Market Breadth Analog Forecast Starting Sep 21, 2015
Review of Forecast for Sep 14, 2015
Another week with extreme swings of 3% up and then 3% down thanks to FOMC interest rate decision. The normal expectation of 1% upside cap failed to capture the FOMC induced volatility. Weaknesses into end of week projection was correct. Extreme volatility expectation was also spot on. The breadth analog model did a fair job last week.
Forecast Starting Sep 21, 2015
Summary of the S&P500 short-term forecast based on my proprietary market breadth analog model as of the close of Sep 18, 2015:
Report Snapshot
Short Explanation About The Model
My market breadth based analog model takes into account the short term volatility, daily market breadth readings and a few other intraday breadth data to identify the current market conditions. Using the information, the model then went through the historical data over the past 20 years to generate its statistical analysis. The model has been pretty good at identifying important swing tops and bottoms over the past few years by providing early warnings about potential volatility upticks.
For the technical explanation of the concept, you can read about it here, Market Breadth Primer: Market Breadth Analog Forecasting Method
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